U.S. thermal power will gradually decrease by 2035

According to the latest report released by Black&Veatch, the share of coal in the U.S. power generation market will decline in the next 20 years due to the increase in low-cost natural gas power generation and the U.S. efforts to control pollution.

The company expects that by 2035, thermal power will account for 25% of the U.S. electricity supply, which is lower than the current 49%. The share of natural gas power generation will increase from the current 21% to 40%. Renewable energy generation will increase from 4% to 11%, while nuclear power generation will increase slightly, from 20% to 21%. The increase in natural gas power generation is mainly due to cheap prices. In the next few years, the United States will have 16% of its thermal power plants retired to avoid significant costs for reducing new pollution measures.

The manager of Powerway also pointed out that there are still uncertainties as to how low the price of natural gas will be in the future and how long it will last. At the same time, the long-term perspective of the National Climate Change Act may limit carbon emissions. In the next two years, the Congress may pass a carbon limit trading system may be minimal. The Bowway report assumes that the bill will eventually be promulgated.

The expert pointed out that in the economic recession of 2009, the U.S. electricity demand fell by 4.1%, which is the largest drop in 60 years. Electricity demand increased by 4.7% in 2010. Experts say this may create the illusion of a revival in the electricity market.

The expert pointed out that although electricity demand is affected by economic growth and rebound after the recession, the main reason for the increase in electricity demand is that the summer is very hot - about 24.5% of the normal level of heat.

Due to abnormal weather, the actual growth in electricity demand in 2011 may be less than 2%. Assuming typical weather in 2011 - not particularly hot or particularly cold - it is expected that electricity demand will increase by 1.5-2.0%.